Iran has begun to reorganize its positions before taking revenge for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh by Israel in Tehran. The Iranian Parliament’s National Commission has unanimously approved Abbas Araghchi as the country’s new Foreign Minister.
Before joining the Foreign Ministry, Abbas Araghchi was an active member of the Revolutionary Guards, having joined them during Iran’s war with Iraq.
Araghchi has not yet been formally appointed as Foreign Minister, as he still needs to receive a vote of confidence from Parliament on August 21.
At 61, Abbas Araghchi was a deputy Foreign Minister under former President Hassan Rouhani and played a key role in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
In his address to Parliament, Araghchi stated that he would continue the policies of his predecessor, Hossein Amirabdollahian, towards neighboring countries. Despite U.S. sanctions, he emphasized strengthening relations with China, Russia, and other emerging powers as a priority.
Hezbollah, too, might refrain from seeking revenge for the killing of its leader’s right-hand man, Fouad Shukr, simply because of a Gaza ceasefire. Likewise, Hamas might not seek revenge for its slain Prime Minister if the bombing of Gaza stops.
Regarding the U.S., Araghchi clarified that President Masoud Pzishkian’s administration will strive to manage tensions and take all possible measures to end U.S. sanctions. However, he also stressed that support for Palestine and other resistance elements will continue.
Designated Minister for Intelligence, Ismail Khatib, claimed that Iran has identified Israeli spies in 28 countries, though the names of these countries and spies have not been disclosed. Khatib noted that Iran is now engaged in hybrid warfare using modern technology.
Iran also fears the influx of ISIS terrorists from Afghanistan in the event of a regional conflict. It remains unclear how many terrorists might have already entered Iran disguised as refugees and are awaiting orders for attacks.
With a 900-kilometer-long border between Iran and Afghanistan, Tehran aims to quickly complete the construction of a 4-meter-high wall and barriers along the border, along with surveillance using cameras, helicopters, and drones.
Given the rapid pace of Iran’s military, diplomatic, and internal actions, it can be anticipated that a retaliatory strike may occur within the next 15 days to a month. The question remains whether the Gaza ceasefire can delay Iran’s potential attack.
Despite the urgency of the Gaza ceasefire, which has already expanded the conflict to Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen due to Israeli actions, a ceasefire alone might not resolve the issue.
The retaliation for Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination during President Masoud Pzishkian’s inauguration might not be postponed merely because of a ceasefire. Hezbollah may still seek revenge for the killing of Fouad Shukr, and Hamas might still want to avenge its slain Prime Minister.
An analysis of the situation suggests that Iran is likely to seek revenge for not only Ismail Haniyeh but also for its military commanders killed in Syria and Lebanon. The timing of this attack may not be far off, and given the speed of Iran’s current actions, a retaliatory strike within 15 days to a month seems plausible. This might be why even Israelis are concerned about the possibility of an escalating conflict.
Reports suggest that since October, around one million Israeli settlers have returned to Europe and the U.S., the countries they came from before settling in Israel.
The fear of a new Iranian attack has heightened security concerns in Israel. While Western efforts to link the ceasefire to Iran’s restraint from revenge continue, it is clear that for the Iranian government, revenge remains a key means of restoring its reputation and influence in the region, even if it takes time.