There’s been a lot of talk about whether the PTI rally in Islamabad was successful or not, but in my view, that’s not the main point. For PTI supporters, it was a success; despite unfavorable conditions and government restrictions, they see it as a victory. However, PTI’s opponents claim it was a failure. They argue that despite all the noise, nothing significant happened—no major impact on the government or breaking of any records. They also point out that compared to PTI’s previous rallies, this one was smaller, with empty spaces visible in the rally ground. Even with full support from the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) government, a large rally could not be organized.
The success or failure of the rally should be evaluated in terms of its objectives. Did it achieve its intended goals? The primary reason PTI organized this rally was to initiate a major movement for the release of the party’s founder. The rally’s success or failure can be assessed in light of this objective. During the rally, the speakers gave a two-week deadline, threatening to take matters into their own hands if the founder was not released within that period. This suggests that PTI is gearing up for a decisive movement to secure the founder’s release.
In my opinion, PTI’s struggle to hold a rally in Islamabad was significant, and organizing another rally there would be much more difficult. The government had made it challenging to hold rallies in Islamabad to prevent the possibility of a continuous movement. A new strict law regarding protests in Islamabad has also been passed to make organizing rallies harder. The government knows that a single rally won’t destabilize it or achieve political goals, but it aims to make rallying so difficult that no larger movement can develop.
If the PTI rally was meant to reignite the enthusiasm and resolve of its workers, then it’s unlikely to have succeeded in Punjab. The workers in KP enjoy government protection, but PTI supporters in Punjab, especially after the events of May 9, are reluctant to get involved in protests. The crackdown after May 9 has instilled fear among PTI’s Punjab workers, and many leaders have gone into hiding, making it difficult for the party to mobilize in Punjab.
If PTI cannot hold rallies in Punjab or create a favorable environment for its supporters, the impact of its movements will remain limited to KP and areas with a Pashto-speaking population. PTI’s influence hinges on Punjab, as it remains the political powerhouse of Pakistan. Without active engagement in Punjab, PTI’s nationwide relevance diminishes significantly.
Ultimately, the rally’s success or failure depends on whether PTI can reignite its base in Punjab. If not, PTI risks becoming a regional party like the ANP, with influence confined mainly to KP and certain Pashto-speaking areas.