Its call day-to-day was gaining momentum and the ambiguity about its objectives dissipated as it targeted the date for November 24th. So far, I have mentioned that there is no “magic key” in Pakistan or at D-Chowk that can simply topple a government because of protests — PTI has experienced that already. If the objective behind this is to achieve a free release of the PTI founder, then a question arises as to how any protest would push or force the government and judiciary to pass an order for such a free release.
Recently, when PTI leaders, including Omar Ayub, Shibli Faraz, and others, went to meet the PTI founder at Adiala Jail, they were detained outside the jail for some time. Later, they were released. Officially, it was said that they were arrested under Section 144 for violating the public gathering rules but then let off after a warning. However, due to this incident, PTI leadership could not meet the PTI founder.
There are two angles coming out of this arrest. One, it was a “staged” arrest, for they did not like meeting the PTI founder but feared backlash if they refused; hence, the arrest provided an excuse. Two, this is government tactic to dispel any impression that it is under pressure following Trump’s win, thereby neutralizing any perceived advantage which might embolden PTI supporters.
Insiders claim the founder of PTI is forcing a final call, whereas, according to them, the political leadership of PTI is trying to put reins on him. However he is adamant and has threatened to throw out anyone who does not listen to his demands. The party seems to have no option to disobey him though it appears to be sceptical about the final call, considering pressure from overseas social media activists.
The important question is what he, the PTI founder, wants. Sources say he wants something big-a big confrontation, bigger than the one after May 9. He knows that a long sit-in won’t help, therefore, he wants a clash, and maybe a very heavy clash may provoke the new U.S. government to interfere and get him out.
The government seems rather indifferent to the protest potential of PTI, at least in the Punjab province, where PTI is still not able to mobilize by any means. The government feels that with some strict measures before the final call, little response would come from Punjab province. The main challenge is KP, where PTI still enjoys governmental support, and they might play it to augment the protest call. According to the political analysts, the government employees outnumbered PTI workers in the rally recently staged in Swabi because they say they have been instructed to attend. The KP government also knows the pitfalls of the situation, which is why there are claims that Gandapur is in contact with the establishment.
If the last call is to remain peaceful, it’s unlikely to bring any real outcome, and that’s why everyone is expecting it to be anything but peaceful, since government planning reportedly includes allowing KP protestors to reach D-Chowk if such a call is made, while handling Punjab differently. How long PTI can keep up with such an effort is an entirely different question, but it’s already clear that the protest will lead to confrontation. The government response, however, is all that remains to be seen, and how this will conclude for the PTI.