While the concept of a global village has numerous benefits, it also has its drawbacks. For example, until three years ago, over forty countries (mostly in Africa) relied on wheat from Russia and Ukraine. These two countries accounted for 25% of global wheat production. No one could have predicted that a prolonged war between them would cause wheat prices to rise. Thus, a conflict thousands of kilometers away affects farmers in Ethiopia’s highlands and fishermen in Bangladesh’s Sundarbans equally.
Similarly, the ongoing Israeli assault on Gaza over the past ten months is no longer just a matter of survival for two nations. This crisis is directly affecting at least sixty-five countries and indirectly impacting many more. But how?
On October 7, Hamas launched an attack on southern Israel. Three days later, Israel began a retaliatory assault on Gaza. A week later, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon began attacking Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians. Israel responded with counteractions against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, in Yemen, located 1,800 kilometers south of Israel, the Houthi administration is targeting ships in the Red Sea associated with Israeli trade.
Ninety percent of Israel’s imports and exports occur via sea routes. Currently, the central Israeli port of Haifa, located on the Mediterranean coast, is under threat from Hezbollah missiles. Consequently, the pressure on imports and exports has shifted to the port of Ashdod, adjacent to Gaza. Meanwhile, the third major port at Eilat, located in the Gulf of Aqaba, has become non-operational due to the Houthi blockade. This port handles imports from Asia, including 150,000 vehicles annually. However, this year only one cargo ship has reached Eilat, leading to half the port’s staff being laid off and reports of it being effectively shut down.
The Red Sea is a crucial maritime route for the global economy. At its northern end is the Suez Canal, a vital economic link between Europe and Asia. At the southern end of the Red Sea is the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects to the Indian Ocean. Despite deploying substantial naval forces over the past eight months, the UK and the US have been unable to lift the Bab el-Mandeb blockade. Now, the Israeli Air Force has also joined the attacks.
The Houthis have linked the end of the blockade to a ceasefire in Gaza. They have sunk two commercial ships, damaged a US warship, and detained several ships and their crews. They have also rendered the Eilat port ineffective through drone and missile attacks, with their drones reaching as far as Tel Aviv.
Egypt, situated at the northern end of the Red Sea, has also suffered economically. The Suez Canal generates more than $10 billion annually for Egypt. Each year, 19,000 cargo ships carrying goods worth one trillion dollars pass through the canal. About 10-15% of global trade and 30% of container traffic move through the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Since the Houthi blockade began, Egypt’s canal revenue has dropped by 80%. Last year, an average of 120 ships passed through the canal monthly, but this year only 24 ships are passing through on average. Egypt has announced discounted packages to attract shipping companies, but none of the top 26 shipping companies are willing to take the risk.
These companies have opted for the ancient maritime route that connects Europe and Asia, bypassing the Suez Canal by navigating around the entire continent of Africa, similar to Vasco da Gama’s route. This adds 6,500 kilometers (3,500 nautical miles) to the journey and requires an additional 14 days compared to the Suez Canal route.
As a result, the cost of fuel for these ships has increased to one million dollars per trip. Insurance premiums are soaring, and higher wages are being paid to crew members. Additional costs are incurred for extended stays at intermediate ports. When all these costs are added, the price of goods that used to cost 100 rupees now ranges between 200 and 250 rupees due to the crisis. Thus, we are all paying the price for Israel’s actions in Gaza, whether we like it or not.
The International Maritime Organization aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from shipping by 40% by 2030. If global trade continues to be disrupted by wars and shipping remains affected, achieving these environmental targets will remain a distant goal.
For years, there has been discussion about using potential maritime routes in the Arctic Circle, resulting from ice melting, to eliminate dependence on the Suez Canal. However, this project requires considerable time and investment to become viable.
Israel wants control over Gaza also to construct a 120-kilometer-long Ben-Gurion Canal connecting the Mediterranean Sea with the Red Sea. This canal would not only allow supertankers to pass but also help mitigate the economic crisis caused by the closure of the Suez Canal. Israel expects to earn $20 billion annually from transit fees. It considers this a feasible project that could recoup its costs in just twelve years.
Although ending Israel’s genocidal policies could resolve the Middle East crisis quickly, states need to prioritize rational solutions over blind power. Diplomacy is about extending a small issue into a lucrative opportunity.