On July 18, 2024, Federal Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal officially released the results of the seventh census, revealing that Pakistan’s population has reached 241.5 million. According to him, 79% of the population is under the age of 40.
The annual population growth rate is 2.55%. If this rate continues, Pakistan’s population could reach 470 million by 2047. Ahsan Iqbal stated, “Pakistani youth need jobs, but without political stability, the economy cannot improve. Continuous population growth is placing immense pressure on state resources, affecting per capita income and the standard of living of citizens.”
Interestingly, while Pakistan’s population is growing rapidly, many countries around the world are struggling with declining populations. A decreasing population can lead to several issues and even drastically alter a nation’s future.
The Quran states that one should not kill their children out of fear of poverty. “Do not kill your children for fear of poverty. We provide sustenance for you and for them. Killing children out of poverty is a grave sin” (Surah Al-Isra, 13). This sentiment is also reflected in Surah Al-An’am, verse 151. The guidance in the Quran is filled with wisdom, and its meanings and significance gradually become clear to humanity.
New Perspective
Since the early 20th century, many parents in developed countries have developed the view that having more children increases expenses, thereby increasing the financial burden on parents and making them poorer. This has led many to have fewer children to avoid poverty. However, from a religious perspective, this thinking is not correct.
Family Planning
This perspective gave rise to the concept of family planning, which suggests that the size of a family should be limited by its resources. This does not mean that procreation should be completely halted but should be regulated according to available resources. Families with abundant resources may have more children, while those with fewer resources should limit their family size.
Family planning is an artificial method to control or limit population growth, and in Pakistan, a family planning program has been in place since 1959 to provide advice, contraceptives, and medications.
There is a debate among scholars about family planning. Some support it, arguing that Islam is a religion of moderation and does not impose excessive burdens. Hence, poor or ill individuals should have fewer children to ensure they can provide good education and upbringing. On the other hand, some scholars oppose it, arguing that Islam does not permit having fewer children out of fear of poverty, as indicated in the Quran.
Inflation and Materialism
With the rise in inflation in the 21st century, a mindset emerged in developing countries that avoiding childbirth would prevent excessive costs. This perspective might also reflect a desire among some young people to spend their earnings on personal luxuries rather than on raising children.
In developed and Western countries, this mindset is not limited to a few young people but has become widespread. Materialism has deeply rooted itself, leading individuals to focus on their own desires and avoid the responsibilities of parenthood. In some cases, only one child is born due to one partner’s insistence.
New Issues
The decline in childbirth rates in many developed countries has led to significant issues. Governments in these countries are now trying to encourage higher birth rates, but many young people are resistant to this, preferring to remain single and avoid the responsibilities of parenthood.
As a result, the local populations in these countries are shrinking, and their demographics are shifting significantly due to immigration.
Total Fertility Rate
The most common measure of childbirth rates in a country is the “Total Fertility Rate” (TFR), which indicates the average number of children a woman will have during her lifetime. Experts suggest that each woman should have at least two children to maintain population stability. The ideal TFR is 2.1%.
Niger Leads
According to the United Nations, Niger has the highest TFR in the world at 7.0%, meaning a woman there has an average of seven children. Among larger countries, South Korea has the lowest TFR, at 0.9%, and continues to decrease.
Most wealthy and developed countries, except for Saudi Arabia and Israel, have TFRs below 1.1%. Saudi Arabia’s TFR is 2.3%, and Israel’s is 2.9%. Other relatively stable countries include Kazakhstan (3%), Algeria (2.7%), Oman (2.5%), and South Africa (2.3%).
Niger and Pakistan
In terms of population size, Niger has the highest TFR at 5%, and Pakistan follows with a TFR of 3.3%, meaning Pakistani women have three to four children on average.
Crude Mortality Rate
When examining TFR, the “Crude Mortality Rate” (CMR) is also important. The CMR measures deaths in a population due to various factors such as old age, disease, accidents, and natural disasters. Countries with high birth rates may not experience significant population growth if their CMR is also high.
Currently, the global CMR is 7.70%. Niger has a relatively high CMR of 8.99%, while Nigeria’s is 8.42%. Pakistan’s CMR is lower at 5.94%, contributing to a faster population increase.
Unfortunate Examples
Lithuania, an Eastern European developed country, has the highest CMR in the world at 15.71% and a low TFR of 1.6%. Its population has only increased by 750,000 in over a century. In contrast, Pakistan’s population has grown from 34 million in 1950 to 241.5 million in 74 years.
Balance
Excessive population growth places undue strain on national resources, leading to shortages and affecting living standards. This phenomenon is evident in Pakistan, where poverty and hunger have driven some to extreme measures. However, the blame lies with the ruling class, which has failed to distribute resources and income fairly. Inefficiencies in governance have led to fewer job opportunities and persistent poverty.
Islam allows for ijtihad (interpretation) based on circumstances, including in matters of procreation. For example, if a country faces food shortages due to natural disasters or economic issues, scholars may advise limiting childbirth to ensure adequate food supply for everyone.
Assessment of Losses
Population decline can be more damaging than growth. Key issues include:
1. Short-Term Impact: A decline in population reduces the workforce, leading to labor shortages and dependence on foreign workers, which can lead to further complications.
2. Aging Population: More elderly individuals increase the cost of healthcare and pensions, straining national resources.
3. Reduced Youth Population: Fewer young people mean fewer recruits for armed forces, weakening national defense.
4. Reduced Dominant Population: A declining native population may lose political and cultural dominance, as seen in Britain, where the white British population has decreased significantly.
5. Impact on Religion: A declining native population can also affect religious demographics. In Britain, the Christian population has dropped below 50%, while other religions have increased.
Global Implications
The rising Muslim population poses a challenge to Western governments that view Islam as a rival. Countries with shrinking native populations face increasing Muslim populations, leading to political and social tensions.
For example, protests by students against Israeli policies, which started among Muslim students, reflect growing discontent with Western policies.
Significance of Population
Population size profoundly affects a country’s political, social, economic, and religious landscape. Ongoing trends may lead to dramatic shifts in global politics and demographics, potentially resulting in significant changes in leadership and power dynamics worldwide.