It is true that the founder of PTI, through the Chief Minister of KP, Ali Amin Gandapur, had planned a march on Islamabad, and in the first round, the government has somehow managed to win. Gandapur is providing numerous clarifications, but the reality is that he has lost a seemingly won game. Now, these explanations are of no use, and I believe the federal government can now relax. PTI has not yet called for another march on Islamabad, and protests in other cities do not hold the same significance as a march on the capital. The government should not be troubled by Gandapur’s new boasts, as he has indirectly aided them. Hence, the government should help Gandapur rehabilitate his reputation.
However, the game of politics is still in an interesting round. The constitutional amendment has become a significant issue for the government, seemingly a matter of life and death. An environment has emerged where, if the amendment is not passed, it will be seen as a major defeat for the government, even though the amendment is not linked to the government’s survival. The government still has a majority, and it would remain even if the amendment fails. However, the political climate has led to the perception that the government’s survival depends on it. Should the amendment fail, it will be considered a political defeat for the government, with everyone saying that despite great efforts, they could not amend the constitution.
The government has also set a self-imposed deadline of October 25. This self-imposed challenge means that now, according to the deadline, it is the government’s responsibility to pass the amendment. Failing to meet this deadline will be perceived as a significant setback for the government, with the public likely viewing it as a failure in the face of opposition.
There is also a climate of uncertainty around where Maulana’s loyalties lie. Will he vote in favor of or against the amendment? One day there’s news of an agreement between the government and Maulana, only to be contradicted by news that nothing has been finalized. One day, news emerges about a draft of the amendment, and the next, there are reports that no draft exists. This confusing situation leaves the public wondering what is truly happening.
Bilawal Bhutto is the most vocal during this time, while the government remains silent. His statements are being used to gauge what might happen. Bilawal created the sense of urgency around the October 25 deadline. His earlier statements were supportive of Justice Mansoor Ali Shah, but that too seems to have waned.
One fact remains: the notification for the new Chief Justice has not yet been issued, which has often been done well in advance in the past. The lack of this notification is also seen as part of the amendment strategy. There are rumors that, regardless of what else happens, the process of appointing the Chief Justice will be altered. If there is an agreement between Maulana and the government on this, it might be enough to address the government’s concerns.
At present, Pakistan’s political landscape revolves around the amendment. It is fair to say that the establishment also seems to support it, albeit quietly. While there is no overt pressure from the establishment, their silent support is still influential.
Speculation is rife as to whether the amendment will be completed before or after the SCO conference. While the consensus is that it will likely occur afterward, the government is running out of time, and each passing day makes the stakes higher.