Reports indicate that hundreds of men, women, and children have been martyred and injured as a result of Israeli bombardment on Lebanon. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has warned that any wrong step could lead to disaster for the entire region.
Israel, by intensifying its attacks against Hezbollah, has significantly increased the difficulties and suffering of the Lebanese people. Despite opposition from the U.S. and the fear of a regional war, Netanyahu has decided to proceed with and approve Israel’s plan to bomb Lebanon. In reality, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is strategically using Hezbollah as a pretext to create conditions that would force Lebanon to agree to a new border arrangement with Israel, allowing Israel to implement its own desired measures on the border. For Lebanon, Monday and Tuesday were among the worst and most devastating days—days that the Lebanese people have not seen in decades.
Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah on the border have been ongoing since October 8 last year. If Israel wishes for its citizens, who were displaced from northern Israel due to Hezbollah’s rocket fire, to return to their homes, it has two options: either negotiate for a ceasefire in Gaza or continue ground interventions toward southern Lebanon. In fact, Netanyahu is either trying to reduce talks or alter the ground realities before any negotiations take place. This is happening in a context where Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant have been placed on a wanted list by the International Criminal Court.
The question arises: has Israel truly found an opportunity to fundamentally reshape the chessboard? On the other hand, just last week, American officials visited Israel to meet with Netanyahu and urged him not to make excessive decisions. Yet, a few days later, Israel attacked Hezbollah’s communication network by destroying thousands of Lebanese pagers and walkie-talkies with explosives. The U.S. maintains that it had no involvement in these pager and walkie-talkie attacks. The Pentagon has stated that Israel is not preparing for a full-scale war.
To assess Netanyahu’s strategy, two potential possibilities can be examined. One is to increase internal pressure on Hezbollah in Lebanon to the point where it becomes powerless. The second is to ensure that Hezbollah is no longer an obstacle to a new border agreement. The last agreement in this regard was reached under UN Security Council Resolution 1701 after the 2006 war. However, it was never fully implemented by either side, and Hezbollah, under successive government policy statements that allowed Lebanese citizens to resist occupation in every way, has managed to maintain control over its weapons. Israel has never retreated from the UN-mandated boundaries. Netanyahu’s ultimate goal is to create a “no man’s land” southward to the Litani River.
This way, civilian uproar will not obstruct Israeli bombings on Hezbollah, giving Israel the opportunity to advance. It is easy to say, but difficult to achieve. By the time of the U.S. elections, the Lebanese people may have already suffered considerable damage at the hands of Israel. This will include the destruction of infrastructure. For Israel, this is the perfect time.
Given the rapid changes in regional politics, it is difficult to predict future developments. Last year, a wave of reconciliation swept through many countries, raising hopes for peace and stability in the region. However, recent developments suggest a shift, with many changes appearing unfavorable. Although Lebanon has a strong military, it cannot bear the costs due to its economic crisis, relying on financial assistance and support from several countries, particularly the U.S., Qatar, France, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
Unfortunately, these countries support various players within Lebanon and often exert pressure, either covertly or overtly, to influence the situation according to their own interests. Lebanon has long suffered from civil war, and the political stability achieved after the Taif Agreement allocated certain positions and ministries to specific sects, religions, and ethnic groups. In Lebanon, sensitive and influential positions are held by individuals from various sects, including Shia, Sunni, Christians, and others. However, there are also numerous armed groups that influence daily life, make key economic decisions, and even affect foreign relations.
Hezbollah, both a political and military force, and Israel remain in constant conflict due to their longstanding hostilities. The effects of Lebanon’s civil war from 1975 to 1990 are still felt today. In military terms, Hezbollah holds significant power. In 2006, a 33-day war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah, during which Israel had to withdraw its troops from Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley. Israel, with military dominance over neighboring countries due to the backing of major powers, faced a severe setback that continues to haunt its military.
Seventeen years ago, Israel was forced to retreat from the Beqaa Valley. On the anniversary of this withdrawal, Hezbollah holds an annual parade, which, though unarmed, has psychological effects on Lebanon’s political and social life. Currently, the situation between Hezbollah and Israel is extremely tense, and this tension could erupt at any moment, potentially disturbing the region’s apparent calm. Israel, having occupied land in several Muslim countries, has become an occupying power, oppressing not only the Palestinians but also attempting to seize the territory of neighboring countries and pursue expansionist ambitions.
The U.S. and Israel are working together to isolate Iran, but the resistance from Lebanon could be a significant challenge for Israel. Due to its role in arming Israel, the U.S. has been repeatedly accused of complicity in Israeli war crimes and crimes against humanity. What further complicates the U.S. position is its contradictory stance on other occupations. In 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and occupied parts of its territory, Washington led the global condemnation and provided billions in military and financial aid to Ukraine. This has established a disturbing double standard, which has been followed by other countries allied with the U.S.
These geopolitical alliances raise important questions about the integrity of the global legal framework. Israel’s violations of international law are becoming increasingly brutal and deadly, affecting not only the Palestinian population but also weakening the basic principles of justice and accountability. This pattern of impunity emboldens others to commit similar crimes.
To restore faith in international law, powerful nations must prioritize human rights over strategic interests. This requires a unified front from the international community. Nations must hold each other accountable for their actions, regardless of political affiliations or alliances. A genuine commitment to justice demands that the principles of international law be applied consistently and without bias. Only through decisive action can the ideals of international law be preserved.